An Explanation of the Reagan Victories in Texas and the Caucus States

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An Explanation of the Reagan Victories in Texas and the Caucus States

The unexpected Reagan success in Texas and in certain caucus states -- New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado -- seem puzzling. Turnout is very high, the people coming to vote or to the caucuses are unknown and have not been involved in the Republican political system before; they vote overwhelmingly for Reagan.

A clear patter is emerging; these turnouts now do not seem accidental but appear to be the result of skillful organization by extreme right wing political groups in the Reagan camp operating almost invisibly through direct mail and voter turnout efforts conducted by the organizations them- selves.

THE ORGANIZATIONS

-- There is a loose coalition of right wing political action committees. Many of these committees are set up by or in conjunction with Richard Vigurie's political direct mail firm. Others have been funded either by a wealthy sponsor (Joe Coors) or by special interest groups like the NRA. See Tab A for a more complete description of these groups. They include:

The American Independence Party (the Wallace voter) Vigurie conducted the Wallace fund raising operation and owns this mailing list.

The Public Service Research Council

The National Conservative Political Action Committee

The Right to Work

Gun Owners - Campaign 1976 ( an off-shoot of the NRA)

AMA's PAC

Business and Industry PAC

ACU PAC

Committee for the Survival for a Free Congress

Heritage Foundation

Right to Life

THE MEMBERSHIP

-- Many of the members of these groups are not loyal Republicans or Democrats. They are alienated from both parties because neither takes a sympathetic view toward their issues. Particularly those groups controlled by Vigurie hold a "rule or ruin" attitude toward the GOP. They are deeply interested in their particular issues, they will work to support their positions, they will turn out to vote in larger numbers than party regulars.

THE POLITICAL OPERATION

-- The fund raising capability and the mailing lists enable these groups to carry out effective political operations in the primary cross-over states and in the caucus states through the use of three techniques:

a. Independent advertising. Being well funded, they can afford to conduct independent advertising campaigns on behalf of Reagan. Such expenditures are not chargeable to Reagan's campaign.

b. Direct mail. They can target an effective direct mail campaign based on responses to fund raising mail using outrageous literature designed to motivate people interested in a right wing cause.

c. Voter turnout. The mailing lists can be turned into telephone lists and door-to-door canvassing lists and used to turn the vote out. These lists can be given to Reagan county chairmen or to the active organization members in an area for use in the voter turnout program. In a state where the GOP vote is traditionally small such an effort can be devastating. In caucus states where a few people attend the county caucuses such an effort can control the state conventions.

We are in real danger of being out-organized by a small number of highly motivated right wing nuts, who are using funds outside of the Reagan campaign expenditure limits. This fact explains the Reagan position on the FEC. If he can keep the FEC immobilized, this assistance to his campaign will not come to light. He is thus able to operate a relatively moderate campaign to capitalize on his natural support and obtain the winning margin from the right wingers support.

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